1. Faulty assumption: Brian Urlacher and the Cover-2 are still compatible.

Realistic approach: At this stage of his career, Urlacher cannot be asked to cover the deep middle against passes and still play single-gap defense against the run. He needs the type of protection from offensive linemen that helped him earlier in his career, the type not part of the Cover-2 philosophy. If the Bears are unwilling to adjust the scheme, they might want to consider moving him to strong-side linebacker.

2. Faulty assumption: An adequate season by the offensive line means it doesn't need to be addressed.

Realistic approach: In starting all 16 games as a unit and providing serviceable pass protection, the offensive line was more consistent than expected. But the Bears still aren't as dominant a running team as the four top-seeded playoff teams: Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Carolina or the Giants. Slide in Chris Williams at left tackle, re-sign John St. Clair to compete at left guard with Josh Beekman and draft a tackle in the first three rounds who can be the heir to John Tait.

3. Faulty assumption: Devin Hester leading wide receivers with 51 catches puts him on track to be the No. 1 threat in the passing game.

Realistic approach: Hester made strides this season, his Sunday adjustment to Orton's underthrown 37-yard completion the latest example. But he isn't the elite receiver many think he can be and won't become one until the Bears obtain a legitimate No. 1 via trade, free-agency or the draft. T.J. Houshmandzadeh was one of five receivers in the league who had as many or more catches than the Bears' top two wide receivers combined (92). He is expected to be a free agent and one of several options the Bears must consider in addressing their top off-season priority.

4. Faulty assumption: The Bears are set at defensive end with well-paid veterans Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown.

Realistic approach: Brown and Ogunleye combined for 11 sacks. Matt Schaub was the fifth quarterback the Bears did not sack. Whatever scheme the Bears end up running next season, it must include better pressure off the edge, even if it has to come from somebody who isn't currently on the roster. Finding a pass-rusher should be the second priority behind wide receiver.

5. Faulty assumption: Matt Forte is indestructible.

Realistic approach: Buy better insurance. Forte's late-season toe injury exposed the drop-off between him and the second option at running back. The Bears need to upgrade the backup role either with a veteran free agent or through the draft. Nobody suggests limiting Forte's touches, but having a dependable option behind him lessens the void created when he isn't on the field.

6. Faulty assumption: The Bears can't win with Kyle Orton at quarterback.

Realistic approach: They can, and they have too many more pressing needs to overreact and overspend for a new quarterback. Orton disappointed many people, including himself, with an inconsistent second half after his ankle injury. But Orton won over players and coaches with his work habits and steady approach, and his skills should improve during his first full off-season as the undisputed starter. The Bears still need to sign a veteran backup who inspires more confidence than Rex Grossman.

7. Faulty assumption: Offensive coordinator Ron Turner must go.

Realistic approach: The Bears quietly looked into launching Turner last year, but bringing him back paid off. If they commit to Orton as the starter, it makes sense to have Turner return for a fifth year as well. Yes, the Bears' offense finished 26th overall in total yards but 14th in scoring. They regularly came out of the gate quickly, a sign of a prepared team. Given the scarcity of talent on offense, Turner might be more deserving of a raise than a pink slip.

8. Faulty assumption: Charles Tillman is your lockdown cornerback.

Realistic approach: Tillman has been on the wrong side of big plays too often to go into another season counting on him to play that role. His body wore down, and his quickness isn't ideal to play man-to-man defense. Maybe this is the off-season the Bears approach Tillman about moving to free safety, which would allow them to find a cover corner opposite Corey Graham.

9. Faulty assumption: Re- investing in players on the roster entering the final years of their contracts creates continuity.

Realistic approach: The Bears did what any good organization would do in re-investing $187 million in new contracts for existing players last off-season. But after a 16-16 record over the last two seasons, maybe it's time to reconsider that philosophy. Starting talks with Orton might help remove one distraction next year, but maybe it makes more sense to let Ogunleye, Danieal Manning and Israel Idonije prove themselves again in '09 before they get new money.

dhaugh@tribune.com

Fans: Blame Babich, Smith: 37% In Monday's paper, we asked fans who was most responsible for the Bears failure to make the playoffs. Of those who voted at chicagotribune.com/sports, 37 percent said the defensive coordinator while 33.3 percent said Lovie Smith.