Sports Illustrated's Peter King picked the Bears to win the NFC. King is one of the most conscientious reporters I know. He studies rosters, watches film and has coaches, players and general managers around the league on speed dial, all of which makes his opinion no more or less valuable than yours or mine.

This is not meant to kill the buzz. Jay Cutler could change the entire dynamic. Matt Forte could blossom into the best all-around back in the NFL, like Walter Payton did. This is a solid, veteran and hopefully motivated team. If things fall right, the Bears could win the NFL's new glamor division, no question.

Much of the enthusiasm, however, is based on the myth that the Bears still have a dominating defense. That's what I don't buy. I don't believe that players will magically perform like they did three years ago. It doesn't work that way. The Bears' defense is what it is. It's a potentially formidable but habitually fragile unit built around the brittle legs of Tommie Harris. At some point, reputation ends and reality begins. Reality says this unit ranked 28th in 2007 and 21st last year.

The personnel hasn't been drastically upgraded. Why are so many convinced the results will be radically different?

Brian Urlacher is supposedly healthy, although this preseason he has looked more like the Urlacher from the last two years who was always around the play than the Urlacher from 2006 and before who always made the play.

Don't discount Rod Marinelli's contribution. Expect the defensive line to play with the relentlessness that was once its signature. That kind of effort is contagious, which could encourage a return to the pants-on-fire pace that once differentiated this unit from every other defense in the league.

Lovie Smith is pulling the strings, which should help. Pisa Tinoisamoa is a quality addition, although the Bears were in more desperate need of upgrades in the secondary. The last thing you want while playing in a division that features Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers -- and negotiating a schedule that includes Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb -- are serious questions at cornerback and safety.

Remaining realistic

This isn't meant to throw a wet blanket on the start of Bears -Packers week. Think of it as a reality check. There's hope, and there's false hope. Hope is the realistic expectation that the Bears will field a top-15 defense. Those who believe the Bears will field a top-five defense suffer from false hope.

Smith's defenses have gotten beaten up and worn down as seasons have progressed. Maybe it's because he prefers speed over size, or maybe the Bears employ some injury-prone defensive players, but it has happened too often to be a coincidence. It could be another concern heading into a rugged late-season stretch against the Packers, Ravens and Vikings.

Cutler could be the remedy for all of it. Part of the defense's problem in the past has been an inconsistent offense that had kept them on the field. An offense that can eat clock and keep the defense fresh could change everything. With Cutler, the Bears should score more, too, which also should help.

Division won't be easy

Bears coaches and players should head into Week 1 knowing that one false start or tipped pass could not only decide the game but the season. That's how hotly contested the NFC North figures to be. The best guess here is that the Bears , Vikings and Packers will finish 11-5, 10-6 and 9-7, but not necessarily in that order. That's why Smith may want his charges to pay extra attention to detail this week. Players might want to watch extra film and stay after practice. A break here or there, an injury, an ill-timed interception could be the difference in the season, and that play could come as early as Sunday night's opener at Green Bay.

It's not that the Bears can't make all the Super Bowl predictions come true. They just have less room for error.

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